Brazil continues high export volumes despite concern over production

October saw Brazil’s highest export volume in the last 12 months, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) has announced in its latest report. Coffee year 2015-16 started strong for the world’s largest producer, with shipments totaling 3.2 million 60-kilogram bags in October. This follows on from a record year for Brazil, which exported 36.9 million bags in 2014-15, its largest ever volume on record. While Brazil’s October 2015 exports were down slightly on October 2014, it recorded a 1.8 per cent increase on the total 12 months prior. “Coffee year 2014-15 was a record for Brazil, despite the lower production figures,” said the ICO. “Suggesting that significant volumes of domestic stocks have been used to fuel the market.” While Brazil appears to be shipping reserve stocks, Vietnam appears to be holding onto its own stocks. Production in Vietnam is pegged at 27.5 million bags in 2014-15, comprising 95 per cent Robusta. Exports from Vietnam were estimated at more than 20 million bags in the same period, a 19.2 per cent decrease on the year prior. “Taking into account a domestic consumption of around 2 million bags, this suggests a significant Robusta stock buildup, which has yet to come to market,” said the ICO. “Looking ahead to 2015-16, the Vietnamese coffee authority Vicofa have indicated that they expect production to drop to 18 million bags, as lower prices reduce the incentive for farmers to invest in their trees.” The ICO acknowledges that this is in contrast to the United States Department of Agricultures forecast of 29.3 million bags. The ICO has revised its total global consumption for calendar year 2014 to 149.8 million bags, which represents an annual growth rate of 2.4 per cent over the last four years.