Brazil production for 2012/13 estimated at 50.6 million bags

Brazil's coffee production for the 2012/13 crop year could reach 50.6 million bags, according to CONAB figures released by the International Coffee Organisation (ICO) earlier this month. The ICO reports that initial estimates show Brazil producing 50.6 million bags, comprising of 37.7 million bags of Arabica and 12.9 million bags of Robusta, in the 2012/13 crop year. The report, however, is cautious that this increase in production may not necessarily lead to an increase in exports. “It should be borne in mind, however, that Brazil's domestic consumption is very buoyant, a factor that may well reduce the volume of coffee available for export,” the report states. The increase in production was attributed to the fact that the last crop year was an off year in the biennial cycle characterising Arabica production, with the 2012/2013 year set to be a year of high Arabica production. This speculation on the size of Brazil's crop led to a downward correction in Arabica prices in December 2011, while Robusta prices increased slightly. The fall led to a drop in the ICO composite indicator prices, with the monthly average falling by 2.4 per cent. The report noted that prices were still relatively high compared with their levels in 2010. Overall, exports in 2010/11 totalled 104.5 million bags, the highest level on record.

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