Coffee market edges back from December slump

After reaching its lowest level in 22 months in December 2017, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) composite indicator price increased by 1.4 per cent to 115.60 US cents per pound in January 2018. The composite started the month at a high of 118.83 US cents per pound then fell to 113.03 US cents per pound on 16 January before rising slightly at the end of the month. Prices for all group indicators saw gains in January. Colombian Milds, Other Milds, and Brazilian Naturals recorded increases of 1.5 per cent, 1 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively, while Robusta rose by 1.2 per cent.  The average arbitrage in January, as measured on the New York and London futures markets, increased by 3.8 per cent to 48.75 US cents per pound. Additionally, intra-day volatility of the ICO composite indicator price increased by 0.6 percentage points to 5.7 per cent, after five months of decrease.   In December 2017, global shipments of coffee increased by 0.7 per cent to 10.62 million bags from the same month a year earlier. However, shipments for the first quarter of coffee year 2017/18 are down 6.7 per cent from a year earlier, reaching 28.36 million bags. Global output in crop year 2017/18, is estimated at 158.93 million bags, 0.8 per cent higher than the previous year. Production is estimated to grow by 4.7 per cent to 17.93 million bags in Africa, 5.9 per cent to 47.64 million bags in Asia and Oceania and 7.1 per cent to 21.92 million bags in Mexico and Central America. These increases would offset declines in South America by 4.9 per cent to 71.44 million bags.

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