Coffee production remains steady at around 134.3 million bags for 2011-12 coffee year

  Total production for the 2011-12 coffee year is estimated at 134.3 million bags, the International Coffee Organisation (ICO) revealed in their September 2012 coffee market report. The final estimation is “effectively unchanged on the previous year”, the ICO noted, despite expectations that production figures would drop because of Brazil's off-year in its biennial cycle of Arabica production. Sharp increases in other producing countries – notably Vietnam, Peru and Honduras – were attributed for the steady production figures. Vietnam produced a record 22.5 million bags, a 15.6 per cent increase on the previous year. While production has remained steady, the ICO reported that coffee exports and consumption continue to reach new heights. Total exports for the first 11 months of the coffee year were recorded at 99.6 million bags, 2.7 per cent higher than a year prior. Robusta has largely driven the increase, with many roasters having introduced or increased their use of Robusta following record high coffee prices last year. Robusta now accounts for 39.2 per cent of the market, and the ICO reported that Arabica exports fell by 3 per cent in the 11-month period. This shift is being reflected in certified stocks held in New York and London, where Arabica and Robusta are traded respectively. As of September 2012, the ICO reported that stocks in New York reached 2.4 million bags, the highest level since June 2010, while London stocks stood at 2.2 million bags, the lowest level since November 2007. “Indeed, this is the first time New York stocks have exceeded London since March 2009,” the ICO reported. “These contrasting developments reflect the respective states of the physical markets, suggesting a slackening in demand for Arabica and a tightening in Robusta.” The ICO indicator price increased slightly in September, up 1.9 per cent in a month. The increase was driven by Arabicas, as Robustas fell by 1.5 per cent. Volatility was noted to have increased in September for all coffee groups.

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