I-CIP makes late gains to limit losses: ICO report

i-cip gains losses ico

The International Coffee Organisation’s (ICO) July 2023 market report shows its Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) lost 7.2 per cent from June to July 2023, averaging 171.25 US cents per pound for the latter, while posting a median value of 158.4 US cents per pound.

Average prices for all group indicators fell in July, with the Colombian Milds suffering the largest loss with a 10 per cent decrease while averaging 190.58 US cents per pound.

Robusta experienced the lightest downturn, decreasing by 3.4 per cent and averaging 127.58 US cents per pound.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York futures markets, decreased by 16.9 per cent to 45.95 US cents per pound as the Robusta growth rate outstripped the New York Market.

Intra-day volatility of the CIP followed a consistent downtrend, reaching 7.8 per cent which was a 0.3 percentage point decrease between June and July.

The New York and London certified stocks decreased in tandem by 2.9 per cent and 29.4 per cent respectively.

In June 2023, South America’s total exports decreased by 15.5 per cent to 3.65 million bags, driven by the two main origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, whose combined exports fell by 16.6 per cent. Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 0.6 per cent to 1.27 million bags in June 2023 from 1.28 million bags in June 2022.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central American decreased 4.6 per cent to 1.86 million bags, compared to 1.95 million in June 2022, while exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 0.5 per cent to 3.63 million bags and were up 2.9 per cent to 35.35 million bags in the first nine months of coffee year 2022/23.

Exports of soluble coffee fell by 8.1 per cent, while exports of roasted beans increased by 11.3 per cent. Exports of roasted beans were up 11.3 per cent in June 2023 to 72,237 bags, as compared with 71,282 bags in June 2022.

World coffee production decreased by 1.4 per cent year on-year, to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, however the ICO expects this figure to bounce back by 1.7 per cent to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2 per cent to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. It is expected to increase by 1.7 per cent to 178.5 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

The ICO predicts that the world coffee market is expected to undergo another year of deficit with an estimated shortfall of 7.3 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

To view the full ICO July 2023 report, click here.

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