ICO Coffee Report shows price decline

The June 2018 Coffee Report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows the market continues to decline. In June 2018, the ICO composite indicator decreased by 2.6 per cent to an average of 110.44 US cents per pound, which is the lowest monthly price average since December 2013. The daily composite indicator started at a high of 114.40 US cents per pound on 1 June, but quickly declined to 110.41 on 7 June. For the rest of the month, the daily composite indicator ranged between 108.98 US cents per pound and 110.72 US cents per pound before falling to 108.68 US cents per pound on 29 June. Prices in June are likely reflecting the greater availability of coffee on the international market from new crops for April-March producers, notably Brazil. Indicator prices for all coffee groups fell in June 2018, though the largest month-on-month decrease occurred for Brazilian Naturals, which fell by 3.7 per cent to 115.10 US cents per pound. Both Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 1.2 per cent to 138.55 US cents per pound and 134.03 US cents per pound respectively. The monthly average Robusta price fell by 3 per cent to 86.07 US cents per pound. The average arbitrage in June, as measured on the New York and London futures markets, rose by 0.3 per cent to 42.79 US cents per pound. Global coffee production in 2017/18 is estimated at 158.56 million bags, 0.3 per cent lower than in 2016/17. Arabica output is expected to decline by 6.6 per cent to 97.16 million bags, while Robusta production is predicted to grow by 11.5 per cent to 61.40 million bags. Production is estimated to grow in all regions except South America, which is 8.2 per cent lower at 70.57 million bags. Output from Africa is estimated to rise by 5.3 per cent to 17.63 million bags, from Asia and Oceania by 7.9 per cent to 48.44 million bags, and from Mexico and Central America by 7 per cent to 21.92 million bags. World exports amounted to 9.27 million bags in May 2018, compared with 10.59 million bags in May 2017 (12.4 per cent lower), driven by a 32.5 per cent decrease for shipments from Brazil, 25.7 per cent for shipments from Honduras, and 55.2 per cent for shipments from Indonesia. Robusta exports saw a decrease of 4.4 per cent to 3.65 million bags, and Arabica shipments fell by 17 per cent to 5.62 million bags. Exports of Colombian Milds grew by 11.6 per cent to 1.08 million bags, in May 2018, this volume did not offset declines in Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals. Shipments of Other Milds decreased by 15.5 per cent to 2.46 million bags, while Brazilian Naturals declined by 27.9 per cent to 2.08 million bags. Total coffee exports for October 2017 through May 2018 were 0.5 per cent lower than those in the same period one year ago. Brazil’s exports in May 2018 were 1.7 million bags, 32.5 per cent lower than in May 2017. Its total exports in the first eight months of coffee year 2017/18 are 8.6 per cent lower at 20.73 million bags. This is attributed mainly to a smaller crop, estimated at 51 million bags, mainly due to the fact that 2017/18 is an off-year of the biennial production cycle for Arabica. Additionally, a nationwide trucking strike delayed delivery of coffee to ports in May. However, harvesting of its 2018/19 crop is underway, with a larger crop expected given that Arabica production will be in an on-year. The larger crop, coupled with the resolution of the strike, will likely lead to higher exports from Brazil over the next few months compared to the volume in May.