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ICO Executive Director Vanusia Nogueira projects market shift

vanusia nogueira

The International Coffee Organisation projects a rise in consumption in the near future. Executive Director Vanusia Nogueira shares her thoughts with GCR on what to expect for the industry in 2024. 

In the past year, the ICO faced significant challenges that provided us with valuable opportunities to deepen our engagement both with national governments of our member countries and the private sector. Our efforts focused on achieving objectives outlined in our Agreement, including improving statistical accuracy and generating new reports. Concurrently, we actively pursued goals set out in the Coffee Public Private Task Force roadmap. A notable accomplishment was hosting the largest World Coffee Conference, with 18,000 attendees from 80 countries. The conference served as a pivotal platform for discussions on the Coffee Circular Economy and Regenerative Agriculture, highlighting our dedication to sustainability and innovation in the coffee industry.

During coffee year 2023/24, the global coffee market is expected to shift from a deficit to a modest surplus, driven by a 5.8 per cent increase in production to 178.0 million bags, mainly influenced by the biennial production in Brazil. The projected 3.0 per cent world economic growth in 2024 is anticipated to contribute to a 2.2 per cent rise in consumption, resulting in a surplus of 1.0 million bags for the period. We hope that the new International Coffee Agreement will enter into force during the year, bringing the private sector on board and hopefully also positively impacting the market.

A primary focus in the upcoming year will involve navigating the questions posed by sustainability regulations, with particular emphasis on meeting the deadlines of the EU Regulation on Deforestation-free products. Several aspects still require clarification to ensure that all stakeholders can effectively fulfil their roles with reference to compliance. Additionally, the ongoing uncertainties surrounding the impact of climate change on the forthcoming harvest cannot be overlooked. Addressing these issues will require strategic planning and collaboration within our sphere.

My wish for 2024 is for the industry to operate with responsibility and unity, collectively striving to enhance the lives of producers, and actively contributing to address climate challenges.

This article was first published in the January/February 2024 edition of Global Coffee Report. Read more HERE.

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