ICO market report sees prices fall in November following rise in October

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO) November 2018 market report, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator decreased by 1.5 per cent to 109.59 US cents per pound in November, reflecting a fall in prices across all group indicators. This drop follows a 13.3 per cent increase to 111.21 US cents per pound in October. The price for Robusta fell 2.1 per cent to 83.52 US cents per pound, while Brazilian Naturals fell two per cent to 113.27 US cents per pound. The differential between Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased 38.1 per cent to 2.16 US cents per pound, as the monthly average for Colombian Milds fell by 1.1 per cent to 139.27 US cents per pound. Other Milds only saw a decrease of 0.2 per cent to 137.11 US cents per pound. In coffee year 2017/18, global output, estimated at 163.51 million bags, exceeded world consumption, estimated at 161.93 million bags, by 1.59 million bags. The ICO says this excess in supply has put downward pressure on prices that may continue over the next few months. The increase in supply is reflected in export data. World coffee exports increased by 17 per cent to 10.41 million bags in October 2018, compared with 8.89 million in October 2017. Brazil’s exports in October 2018 increased by 29.1 per cent to 3.75 million bags, which is the largest volume the ICO has on record for October shipments. Vietnam’s exports are estimated at 2.1 million bags in October 2018, compared with 1.38 million bags in October 2017. Exports for the year ending October 2018 are estimated at 29.37 million bags, 28 per cent higher than in the same period last year, reflecting the larger harvest in crop year 2017/18. In October 2018, Colombia’s exports are estimated at one million bags, 11 per cent lower than October 2017, due to the smaller volume of production over the past year. In the year ending October 2018, Colombia exported 12.6 million bags, compared to 13.38 million bags one year ago. In the twelve months ending October 2018, global shipments amounted to 123.5 million bags, 4.2 per cent higher than last year.

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