ICO predicts significant deficit for crop year 2014-15

The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) has confirmed that it is expecting a significant deficit of at least 8 million 60-kilogram bags for crop year 2014-15. In its May report, the ICO said overall coffee production is estimated at 141.9 million bags in 2014-15, down 3.3 per cent on the previous year. Arabica production is estimated to drop 2.8 per cent to 84.6 million bags in 2014-15. Robusta is expected to be down 4.1 per cent at 57.2 million bags, according to the report. In its latest report, Volcafe said Brazil’s shipments between June 2014 and May 2015 closed at 36.7 million-bags, of which 4.5 million bags are Robusta. Brazil exports in May totalled 2.8 million 60-kilogram bags, the lowest since February and down 8 per cent from May 2014, said Volcafe. Crop year 2015-16 has now started in Brazil, with Conab, which tends to be on the lower end of the range of estimates, predicting production will drop 2.3 per cent to 44.3 million bags for the new crop. “If realised, this volume would be the third consecutive year with lower production levels,” said the ICO. The ICO said it was too early to give its comprehensive estimate for Brazil’s 2015-16 crop, but did offer its initial predictions. It expects Brazil’s Arabica to make a slight recovery to reach 32.9 million bags. However, it estimates Robusta’s production at 11.4 million bags, 13 per cent lower than 2014-15, due in large part to the drought in Espirito Santo, Brazil’s largest producing region.