ICO puts final production at 145 million bags as coffee year closes off

The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) has released its latest estimate for the 2013-14 coffee year, that finished at the end of September, at 145.2 million bags. This is 600,000 bags less than it originally predicted at the beginning of the crop year. Although this is 200,000 bags more than in 2012-13, it's far less than many expected early on, considering Brazil was having an on-year in its biennial cycle of production. Central America is reported to have lost 2.5 million bags due to the coffee leaf rust crisis. Brazil Naturals were down 2.2 per cent over the previous year, following the country’s worst drought in recent history. The world’s largest coffee producer’s latest forecasts are for a total production of 45.15 million bags, the lowest level since the 2011-12 crop. The ICO noted that there are “mounting concerns over the 2015-16 crop”. The latest concerns were reflected in prices in September, with high volatility throughout the month. Arabica production dropped 3.8 per cent, with recovery in Colombia partially offsetting losses elsewhere. An increase in the production of Robusta, by an impressive 6.4 per cent to 59.9 million bags, saved production from falling into a deficit, with total consumption for the 2013 calendar year estimated at 145 million bags. The ICO noted that this leaves “the market reasonably balanced, but lower production expected in 2014-15 will likely result in a global deficit next year.”

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