ICO warns against dwindling stock

The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) has reiterated in its July report that stock levels in most producing countries are waning. The ICO report says that while the coffee market seems to have no immediate supply concerns, the moderate buffer in importing warehouses may not be sufficient to cover a significant shock to production. According to the ICO, if production fails to meet expectations the market could be highly susceptible to a rapid surge in prices, as was the case in March 2014 and early 2011. For the past month the ICO has registered further decreases, with prices dropping in conjunction with a depreciating Brazilian real. The daily price of the ICO composite indicator fell to a low of US$116.02 cents in July, the lowest since January 2014. The monthly average settled on US$119.77 cents per pound, its lowest in 18 months. Total exports in June came to 9.7 million bags, 3.3 per cent less than last year, but still the second highest level for June on record. Shipments of Robustas and Brazilian Naturals were both lower, with Colombian Milds the only strong performer, up 26.2 per cent in June. The ICO reports that total exports for the first three quarters of the coffee year are now at 82.1 million bags, 4.3 per cent less than the same period in 2014.