USDA predicts Brazil coffee production will drop 1.5 million bags in 2014-15

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting that world coffee production for the 2014-15 crop year will drop 1.5 million 60-kilogram bags from the previous year, primarily due to weather issues in Brazil. The USDA released new figures in mid-June, putting the next crop year at 148.7 million bags. It expects the world to produce 150.1 million bags in the 2013-14 crop year, a 400,000 bag decrease of the figure it released this past December. With increased exports expected from the European Union at a record 46 million bags, and the United States at a record 25 million, overall the USDA says that inventories will be drawn down at the end of the year. Breaking down production by region, the USDA says that the biggest losses are definitely coming from Brazil, which will be breaking its biennial cycle for the first time in over two decades, with a harvest 21 per cent lower than the last “on year”. The USDA put Brazil’s final production figure for 2014-15 at 49.5 million bags. Vietnam, however, is expected to see its harvest increase 1 per cent to 29.3 million bags. The USDA noted that the world’s second largest producer of coffee has seen its planted coffee area increase 20 per cent, coupled with a 30 per cent increase in yield. Vietnam will make up for losses in Indonesia, where the USDA says production is forecast to drop 600,000 bags to 8.9 million. Meanwhile, back in Latin America, Colombia should see an extra 1 million bags in 2014-15, with the USDA pegging its final figure at 12 million bags. The USDA expects a good recovery from coffee rust in Central America and Mexico, with increased production from from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador. The USDA pegged Central America and Mexico’s total production to come in at 16.2 million bags.