World coffee production forecast down 11 million bags: USDA Coffee World Markets and Trade report

World coffee production down

World coffee production for 2021/22 is forecast down 11 million bags from the previous year to 164.8 million, according to the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) Coffee: World Markets and Trade June 2021 report.

USDA FAS says this is due primarily to Brazil’s combined effect of Arabica trees entering the off‐year of the biennial production cycle and a weather‐related shortfall.

As a result of lower output, USDA FAS expects global ending inventories are expected to drop 7.9 million bags to 32 million. It expects world coffee bean exports to be down 4.8 million bags to 115.5 million.

World coffee production for 2020/21 is revised up 300,000 bags from the Coffee: World Markets and Trade December 2020 estimate to 175.8 million.

Brazil is up two million bags to 69.9 million, largely due to updated data for Arabica output. Uganda is revised 1.2 million bags higher to six million largely due to increased area. Peru is lowered 1.1 million bags to 3.4 million on updated area and yield data. Cote d’Ivoire is reduced 700,000 bags to 1.1 million on lower yields.

USDA FAS has raised world bean exports 2.8 million bags to 120.3 million.

Brazil is raised four million bags to 41 million on higher exportable supplies. Peru is down 900,000 bags to 3.3 million on reduced exportable supplies. Vietnam is lowered 800,000 bags to 23 million on slower shipments to the European Union and United States. Cote d’Ivoire is reduced 600,000 bags to 900,000 bags on lower exportable supplies.

World ending stocks are lowered 1.4 million bags to 39.9 million. Brazil is lowered 1.3 million bags to four million on higher shipments. The European Union is revised 1.6 million bags higher to 16.1 million on updated data from the European Coffee Federation. The US is down 600,000 bags to 6.4 million on lower‐than‐anticipated consumption.

The next release of the Coffee: World Markets and Trade publication will be on December 17, 2021.

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