Brazil has increased its forecast for coffee production in 2025 according to Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab).
Production is expected to grow 2.7 per cent, estimated at 55.7 million bags from 2024 figures. If the estimated volume is confirmed at the end of the cycle, it will be the largest harvest ever recorded for a year of low biennial production.
The stronger estimated results have been largely influenced by a 28.3 per cent recovery in average productivity of Robusta crops, which is expected to produce a species record of 18.7 million bags – 13.1 million of which are expected to be produced in Espírito Santo alone.
Conab says a “regular climate during the most critical phases of the crops” has “benefitted positive flowering and the good quantity of fruits per rosette” for the species.
The Robusta recovery is also expected to be felt in Bahia, which is expected to regain its position as the second largest producer of the species with an estimated 2.5 million bags, ahead of the 2.28 million bag estimate for Rondônia.
Strong expected production of Robusta crops have been offset by an expected reduction in the harvest of Arabica beans, which is the species that has been most impacted by the current biennial cycle.
Conab is predicting a 6.6 per cent reduction in harvest, forecasted at around 37 million bags. The dry period between April and September 2024 in Minas Gerais, the largest producer of Arabica beans, has lowered the productive potential to 25.65 million bags in the region.
The value of international coffee sales has seen Brazil’s coffee export figures soar in the opening quarter of 2025, with the nation exporting a total of US$4.1 billion, a 68.9 per cent increase on the same period in 2024.
Shipments abroad have endured a one per cent decrease, which was expected due to the restriction of domestic stocks in the initial months of 2025.
Even with expected increases in global production by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), it is expected prices will remain steady and under pressure throughout the remainder of the year.
