The lack of a clear directional catalyst has seen the average International Coffee Organization (ICO) Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) drop 2.6 per cent to 296.899 US cents/lb in January 2026.
The ICO states prices were too low to trigger aggressive producer selling, but sufficiently elevated to keep farmers “comfortable and engaged”.
The month also closed with positive news of heavier rainfall in Minas Gerais, which eased some concerns regarding future supply.
Despite the average drop in prices, there was a price bump seen around 6 January, which was followed by a period of sustained elevated levels. This is partly attributed to macro factors like the appreciated of the Brazilian real against the United States (US) dollar, and higher domestic sale prices in Brazil.
Overall, exports of green beans have continued to rise, with exports of Robustas soaring 26.5 per cent year-on-year in December 2025 to total of 4.5 million bags.
Total green bean exports rose 9.2 per cent to 10.15 million bags in the month, with the Arabicas’ share of total green bean exports falling to 64.1 per cent from 67.4 per cent between the first three months of coffee years 2025/26 and 2024/25.
Regionally, only South America’s total exports fell, with Africa, Asia and Oceania, and Mexico and Central America all climbing year-on-year.
South America’s export of all forms of coffee decreased 15 per cent to 4.65 million bags in December 2025, with an 18.9 per cent fall in Colombia laying the foundation for the drop. It’s just the second time Colombia has registered negative export growth in ant month sic˜e September 2023.
This was South America’s 14th consecutive month of negative export growth.
Asia and Oceania grew its total export figures to 5.15 million bags – up 38.4 per cent – largely driven by a 29.7 per cent increase in Vietnam, which was responsible for 3.43 million bags.
An incredible 215 per cent year-on-year increase from Honduras (0.27 million bags) fostered an 81.3 per cent increase in exports from Mexico and Central America, to a total of 0.82 million bags.
Uganda was the driver for a 13.3 per cent increase in exports from Africa, with the major producer’s exports rising 52.5 per cent to an estimated 0.63 million bags. The entire region registered a 1.32 million bag export figure for December 2025.
