Compahia Nacional de Abasteciemento’s (CONAB), Brazil’s National Supply Company, latest crop estimates for Brazil have sprung something of a surprise, with the third-largest coffee crop ever now expected despite a litany of productivity challenges this crop cycle.
The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with crop cycles occurring biennially, yet is projected to finish behind only the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018 harvests.
CONAB’s revised outlook of almost 56.5-million 60-kilogram bags is considerably higher than the 55.2 million expected in the previous forecast released in September, and far beyond the 51.8 million bags first projected for this season.
The National Supply Company has cited the revised increase to a better performance of Conilon crops, which are now expected to reach a record export level of 20.8-million bags, up from 14.6-million bags the previous cycle.
Arabica coffee production has faltered due to the inclement climate conditions, and is forecast to produce just 35.8-million bags, down from the 38.6-million bags in 2024.
This year’s coffee production, if it reaches the expected 56.5-million bags, will be below only the 2020’s 63.1-million bags, and 2018’s 61.7-million bags.
