Prices for both Arabica and Robusta coffee on the ICE Futures market have dropped significantly this week, with a 3.35 per cent and 3.24 per cent dip respectively slightly easing pressures.
After steadily dropping from an all-time high price of 420.85 on October 20, Arabica prices surged back to 413.50 on November 5.
This drop of more than 13 points has been attributed to the forecast of consistent, steady showers in Brazilian growing regions over the next week, easing concerns over the ongoing dry conditions.
Low rainfall in the growing region of Minas Gerais has been placing pressure on prices. Somar Meteorologica has reported the region received only 75 per cent of its historical average rainfall for the week ending starting October 24 (33.4mm), compared to just one per cent the week before.
Arabica prices are also being undercut due to a “surprisingly good” meeting held between Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and United States President Donald Trump, where da Silva said there could be a “definitive solution” on trade between the nations in the coming days.
Currently, there is a 50 per cent tariff on all Brazilian products being imported into the US, including coffee.
A boost in projection of Vietnamese coffee exports for 2025/26 has somewhat eased supply concerns on Robusta, leading to a drop of 152 points on the ICE Futures market. The new projection of 29.4 million bags, as reported by the Vietnam National Statistics Office, would be a four-year high.
Jan-Oct 2025 exports also rose 13.4 per cent year-on-year, while the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) stated on October 24 that, if rains remain consistent, the nation’s coffee output would be up to 10 per cent higher than the previous crop year.
The landfall of Typhoon Kalmaegi on Vietnam could drive Robusta prices higher though, with the storm hitting the region in Central Vietnam. Forecasters have warned the torm could dump more than 600 millimetres of rain in some areas, with wind gusts reaching up to 220 kilometres per hour.
Kalmaegi is the 13th typhoon to hit Vietnam this year.
