The turn of the new year has not slowed down the rising costs of Arabica coffee, according to the ICE C-Futures market, with the commodity reaching a four-week high of US$3.87/lb on Wednesday 7 January.
Prices plummeted as low as $3.41/lb on December 19 – the lowest since 23 September – but have sharply risen since the turn of the new year. The record cost still stands at just over US$4/lb seen on 15 September.
The new four-week high is a huge year-on-year increase compared to 7 January 2025, where the ICE C-Future price was just US$2.83/lb.
Below average rainfall in Brazil combined with the strength of the Brazilian real, have been cited as key reasons for the rapid rise. The real is currently at a one-month high against the US dollar.
Despite the lifting of tariff restrictions of Brazilian coffee entering the United States (US), ICE monitored inventories also remain low. Import data from August through October 2025, when the tariffs were still in effect, dropped to 983,97 bags, a 52 per cent drop compared to the same period in 2024.
March ICE Robusta Coffee futures are also up 1.61 per cent despite an immense rise in year-on-year exports of Robusta from the world’s largest producer, Vietnam.
Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the nation’s total exports increased 17.5 per cent in 2025 compared to 2024. It is projected to climb a further six per cent to 29.4 million bags in 2025/26, especially if weather remains favourable.
