The United States’ (US) ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs played havoc on international coffee prices in April, as documented in the International Coffee Organisation’s (ICO) latest Coffee Market Report.
The introduction of the tariffs by US President Donald Trump on 2 April saw the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) reach a four-month low of 308.93 US cents per pound, a 32.59 cent per pound fall.
The suspension of most of the tariffs on 9 April saw a rapid recovery in the I-CIP and reversed the direction of the market.
The I-CIP price over April averaged 335.76 US cents per pound, which is a 3.5 per cent decrease from March 2025.
Despite the minor month-to-month reduction in price, April 2025’s average stands 54.8 per cent higher than the April 2024 I-CIP average.
The 12-month rolling average stands at 278.20 cents per pound.
There is continued market optimism surrounding the coffee sector’s potential exemption from any returning tariff scheme, and although the introduction and temporary suspension of the tariffs had the largest immediate impact on coffee prices, a range of international environmental and macroeconomic factors continue to influence prices.
The addition of Vietnam as a Deliverable Origin on the Coffee “C” Futures Contract has freed up 37,500 pounds of washed Arabica coffee at a differential of -600 points. This greater supply of commercial coffee in destination ports could alleviate supply fears.
Conversely, high temperatures and low rainfall in Brazil is set to negatively impact coffee yields later this year according to the nation’s largest Arabica coffee cooperative, Cooxupé, but more recently Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) has recently increased its forecast for coffee production in 2025.
Overall, global green-bean exports in March totalled 11.64 million bags, a 0.9 per cent reduction on the 11.75 million bags exported in March 2024.
This was the third consecutive month total exports of green beans has fallen in 2024/25. The current year-to-date volume is 3.20 per cent down at 60.63 million bags compared with 62.62 million bags between October 2023 and March 2024.
Exports of Colombian Milds jumped 25.3 per cent to 1.33 million bags compared to March 2024. It was the eighth consecutive month of positive growth for the group of coffee.
Shipments of Other Milds increased 5.9 per cent, with Costa Rica, Ethiopia, and Honduras all positively contributing to the growth with a net gain of 0.22 million bags.
Green bean exports of Robustas were down 8.4 per cent to 4.55 million bags, and exports of Brazilian Naturals decreased 2.4 per cent to 3.49 million bags.
Exports of all forms of coffee grew by 0.6 per cent to 13.0 million bags in March, however, South America’s total monthly share of 35.7 per cent of all exports its lowest since June 2023.
The region’s 4.64 million bags represents a 15.9 per cent year-on-year decrease.
Positive export growth in Africa continued, as the region increased its export figures 36.3 per cent to 1.58 million bags when compared to March 2024, while exports of all forms of coffee in Asia and Oceania rose 6.1 per cent.
Finally, exports in Mexico and Central America increased by 15.3 per cent to 1.69 million bags.
